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盛泽50指数08年上半年度走势点评 闽江学院 甘应进 教授 整理

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发表于 2011-6-17 01:42:28 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
盛泽50指数08年上半年度走势点评
               
        作者:
    编辑:吕缜缜 闽江学院甘应进教授
                              
       什么叫盛泽50指数:盛泽50指数,也称规模效益指数,以盛泽地区生产规模最大的50家丝绸化纤织造企业的净现金流为依据,按月度统计发布。盛泽50指数的计算基期为2007年8月,基期指数为1000点。考虑到单月数据的波动性较大,因此,我们在发布时采用了三月平滑处理的方法,这样,盛泽50指数所反映的效益状况有一定的滞后性。盛泽50指数每月发布一次,发布日为每月的10日。盛泽50指数反映了盛泽地区主要企业的经营效益波动情况,在一定程度上反映了企业竞争能力的变化。
本段翻译由微软、雅虎提供,闽江学院甘应进 审核,不足的地方,请提建议。?
What is Sheng 50 index: Sheng 50 index, also known as scale index, shengze area's 50 largest chemical fiber Silk weaving production scale is based on net cash flows of the enterprise, according to the monthly statistics released. Sheng 50 index calculation of the base period in August 2007, the base period index of 1000 points. Taking into account the volatile monthly data, so when we release March smoothing method is used, so that Sheng 50 indices reflect the benefit of a certain degree of delay. Sheng 50 Index published on a monthly basis, release day for the 10th of each month. Sheng 50 indices reflect the Sheng major fluctuations in the business benefits of enterprise, to a certain extent, reflect the changes in the competitive ability of enterprises.

本段翻译由微软、雅虎提供,闽江学院甘应进 审核,不足的地方,请提建议。?

  经过连续的上涨后,1月盛泽50指数出现下跌走势,应该说是市场的正常反映。首先,1月织造行业进入传统淡季,企业多停产放假准备欢度春节,这在很大程度上对50指数形成了冲击;二是受到内外销市场销售不畅的影响,大多数50织造企业产品的库存压力显现,根据我们调查,库存一般都在两个半月左右;三是产品库存带来的资金压力和信心的下降,造成企业无力也无心再组织再生产,织造开机率也因此出现明显的下降,1月织造开机率最低下降至5成以下的水平。四是人民币升值压力。人民币在1月继续保持着加速升值的趋势,汇率的不稳定,严重影响了企业的外贸接单。
本段翻译由微软、雅虎提供,闽江学院甘应进 审核,不足的地方,请提建议。?
After continuous rising of January Sheng 50 Index falling trend, it should be said to be properly reflected in the market. First, January weaving made industry entered traditional off-season, enterprise more discontinued holiday prepared celebrate Spring Festival, this in is large degree Shang on 50 index formation has impact; second is was within export market sales does not cheong of effect, most 50 weaving made enterprise products of inventory pressure appeared, under we investigation, inventory General are in 2.5 months around; three is products inventory brings of funds pressure and confidence of decline, caused Enterprise unable to also Centerless then Organization reproduction, weaving made power rate also therefore appears obvious of decline, January weaving made power rate minimum Xia dropped to 50% following of level. Four is the pressure of RMB appreciation. Trend of RMB's appreciation of the continued to maintain accelerated in January, the exchange rate instability, seriously affect the company's foreign trade order.
  综合来看,上述压力在短期内将继续存在。尤其是人民币升值、劳动力用工成本的上升、银行信贷业务收缩等不利因素对纺织企业的影响非常具有杀伤力的,部分中小纺织企业也将因此面临被兼并、收购的危险。
本段翻译由微软、雅虎提供,闽江学院甘应进 审核,不足的地方,请提建议。?
Taken together, such that the pressure in the short term, there will continue to exist. Particularly appreciation, rising costs of labor and employment, bank credit contraction, such as adverse factors impact on textile enterprise of very lethal, some small and medium-sized textile enterprises will face risk of mergers and acquisitions.
  2月,盛泽50指数下行趋势依旧明显,监测数据显示,当月,代表盛泽地区生产规模最大的50家丝绸化纤织造企业的“50指数”在产品景气指数、市场景气指数上涨的情况下,却走出了下跌曲线。总体来看,2月盛泽50指数出现下跌走势,应该说是市场的正常反映。首先,2月份企业多停产放假欢度春节,同时全国受到罕见雪灾的影响,生产织造行业进入了传统淡季,这在很大程度上对50指数形成了冲击;二是受到内销、外销市场不景气的影响,大多数50织造企业产品的库存压力显现,根据我们调查,库存一般都在两个月到两个半月左右;三是产品库存带来的资金压力和信心的下降,造成企业无力也无心再组织再生产,织造开机率也因此出现明显的下降,2月织造开机率最低下降至4成以下的水平。四是人民币升值压力。人民币在2月继续保持着升值的趋势,汇率的不稳定,严重影响了企业的外贸接单。
本段翻译由微软、雅虎提供,闽江学院甘应进 审核,不足的地方,请提建议。?
In February, Sheng 50 index downward trend still evident, monitoring data show that month, on behalf of Sheng District 50 of the largest production of Silk weaving chemical fiber enterprises "50 index" in the case of product climate index, the market climate index rose, but out of the drop curve. Overall, the trend February Sheng 50 index fell, it should be said to be properly reflected in the market. First, February Enterprise more discontinued holiday celebrate Spring Festival, while national was rare snowstorm of effect, production weaving made industry entered has traditional off-season, this in is large degree Shang on 50 index formation has impact; second is was domestic, and export market downturn of effect, most 50 weaving made enterprise products of inventory pressure appeared, under we investigation, inventory General are in two months to 2.5 months around; three is products inventory brings of funds pressure and confidence of decline, caused Enterprise unable to also Centerless then Organization reproduction, weaving made power rate also therefore appears obvious of decline, February weaving made power rate minimum Xia dropped to 40% following of level. Four is the pressure of RMB appreciation. Trend of continued in February to maintain a revaluation of the Renminbi, exchange rate instability, seriously affect the company's foreign trade order.
  综合来看,上述压力在短期内将继续存在。尤其是人民币升值、劳动力用工成本的上升、银行信贷业务收缩等不利因素对纺织企业的影响是非常具有杀伤力的,部分中小纺织企业也将因此面临被兼并、收购的危险。
本段翻译由微软、雅虎提供,闽江学院甘应进 审核,不足的地方,请提建议。?
Taken together, such that the pressure in the short term, there will continue to exist. Particularly appreciation, rising costs of labor and employment, bank credit contraction, such as adverse factors impact on textile enterprise is very lethal, some small and medium-sized textile enterprises will face risk of mergers and acquisitions.
  3月,盛泽50指数开始上升。监测数据显示,该月,代表盛泽地区生产规模最大的50家丝绸化纤织造企业的“50指数”在产品景气指数、市场景气指数都走出阳线的带动下大幅上涨,收于1256.50点,与上月相比大涨了240.54点。
本段翻译由微软、雅虎提供,闽江学院甘应进 审核,不足的地方,请提建议。?
In March, Sheng 50 index began to rise. Monitoring data show that in the month, representing Sheng District 50 of the largest production of Silk weaving chemical fiber enterprises "50 index" in the climate index, the market climate index is out of the Sun line led by rose sharply, to close at 1256.5 points, compared with last month rose 240.54 points.
  3月盛泽50指数出现大幅上涨,这在我们的预料之中。首先,2月份指数的下跌,是因为当月整个市场行情处于一年中的最低点,因为企业多停产放假欢度春节,同时受到罕见得大雪灾的影响,整个织造行业大半个月基本处于休市状态,这在很大程度上对2月的50指数形成了冲击。但是3月面料市场启动,面料采购商纷纷乘低入市,导致市场需求出现“井喷”,再加上同期各织造厂家的开机率都不高,使得大多数50织造企业产品的库存大为下降,根据我们调查,3月50企业的库存一般都只在1个月左右,低的仅仅在10天左右,;另外,3月是上半年面料销售旺季的开端,3月以来市场上的薄型面料纷纷动销,许多厂家的库存得到很好的消化,部分畅销产品甚至供不应求,企业也开足马力进行生产。在上述因素的影响下,盛泽50指数从而出现了报复性的反弹走势。但目前企业面临的外部压力依然不容忽视,一是人民币升值压力仍在,人民币对美元汇率近期已经突破7元大关,汇率的不稳严重影响了企业对外贸定单的接受,从市场走访了解到,很多出口型企业今年已经拒接了许多外单,主要是很多单子利润也不高,人民币一升值就会无利润甚至亏本;二是市场竞争压力加大,部分产品产能过大,市场价格战不休;三是是资金压力,银行信贷业务总体紧缩,许多中小企业资金周转困难。
本段翻译由微软、雅虎提供,闽江学院甘应进 审核,不足的地方,请提建议。?
A sharp rise in March Sheng 50 index, which we expected. First, the February index's decline, because of the current month in the middle of the market as a whole is in a low, as companies cut off on holiday to celebrate the Spring Festival, while under the influence of rare big snowstorm, half a month basic weaving industry as a whole in a closed state, this is to a large extent on February 50 index formed a shock. But March fabric market started, fabric procurement commercial have take low market, led market demand appears "blowout", then plus over the weaving made manufacturers of power rate are does not high, makes most 50 weaving made enterprise products of inventory greatly decline, under we investigation, March 50 enterprise of inventory General are only in 1 months around, low of just in 10 days around,; also, March is first half of fabric sales season of beginning, March yilai market Shang of thin type fabric have dynamic pin, many manufacturers of inventory are is good of digestive, part sold products even demand, enterprise also hype for production. Under the influence of these factors, Sheng 50 index to a retaliatory rally trend has emerged. But currently Enterprise faced of external pressure still not ignored, a is RMB appreciation pressure still in, RMB on dollars exchange rate recent has breakthrough 7 Yuan mark, exchange rate of does not stability serious effect has enterprise on foreign trade orders of accept, from market visited understanding to, many export type enterprise this year has refused received has many outside single, main is many list profit also does not high, RMB a appreciation on will no profit even loss; second is market competition pressure increased, part products capacity had large, market prices war over; three is is funds pressure, bank credit business overall crunch, many SMEs funds turnover difficulties.
  而从另外监测数据显示,该月由东方丝绸市场上5000余家商户中的350家商户经营者,依据自己企业的生产经营情况对调查问卷中的问题做出判断选择,统计得出的市场景气指数、化纤产品景气指数和丝绸产品景气指数也都纷纷下跌。
本段翻译由微软、雅虎提供,闽江学院甘应进 审核,不足的地方,请提建议。?
And other monitoring data show that the month by more than 5,000 on the Oriental silk market operators more than 350 merchant in the merchant, pursuant to their own production and operation of enterprises select judgment of questions in the questionnaire, statistics market climate index, chemical fiber products derived from climate index and silk products climate index also have decreased.
  4月盛泽50指数出现大幅下跌,这既在笔者的预料之外,又在笔者的预料之中。
本段翻译由微软、雅虎提供,闽江学院甘应进 审核,不足的地方,请提建议。?
April Sheng 50 index fell sharply, both in the author's unexpected, and I expected.
  预料之外:因为从市场商户多年来的经营情况来看,3月底到5月初,市场应该进入一个销售旺季,基本上在春节前后形成的库存压力,在这段时间内就可以消化掉,部分产品还会出现供不应求的局面,所以笔者在3月初采访商家时,他们对当时的库存情况还是保持乐观的态度,甚至部分厂家还在主动增加库存。再加上从2008年1月1日起,中欧纺织品贸易配额限制的取消对我国纺织品出口尤其对欧盟市场的出口起到了一定的刺激作用。从海关统计的数据了解:2008年1~2月,我国对欧盟出口纺织服装59.9亿美元,大幅增长27%,占23.4%,呈快速增长态势。从以上各种行情走势可以预测后市行情会走高。
本段翻译由微软、雅虎提供,闽江学院甘应进 审核,不足的地方,请提建议。?
Expected zhiwai: because from market merchant years of operating situation view, March end to May early, market should entered a sales season, basically in Spring Festival before and after formation of inventory pressure, in this paragraph time within on can digestive off, part products also will appears demand of situation, so author in March early interview businesses Shi, they on then of inventory situation also is keep optimistic of attitude, even part manufacturers also in Active increased inventory. Plus from January 1, 2008, the cancellation of the EU-China textile trade quotas on Chinese textile exports to the EU market in particular export played a stimulating role. From customs statistical data about: 2008 ~ February, China's exports to the EU textile and clothing US $ 5.99 billion, surged 27%, 23.4%, is a rapid growth trend. From these various market trends to forecast future prices will rise.
  预料之中:从内部看,今年前期产品销售与往年相比都有下调,而且本地区纺织行业发展迅速,但是绝大部分都是重复建设,生产都主要集中在中低端、低附加值产品上,而且当前各种成本压力不断上涨,但是常规产品价格却在竞争压力下无力上涨,由此也可见行情开始走淡(假如产品供不应求,怎么会不涨价),说明内部竞争压力大也是行情走淡的一个因数。在从外部看,各种压力也不小,今年以来人民币持续升值和出口退税下降,再加上美国的信贷危机加剧等因数的影响,纺织服装出口开始走缓,特别是低附加值纺织服装产品的出口面临了较大的困难,而且东南亚一些国家如越南、孟加拉等国出口的纺织服装产品比之我国已渐具价格优势。也就是说中国纺织品靠“以廉取胜”,靠中低端、低附加值产品打天下的时代已经结束。
本段翻译由微软、雅虎提供,闽江学院甘应进 审核,不足的地方,请提建议。?
Expected: from internal see, this year early products sales and in previous years compared are has cut, and this area textile industry development quickly, but most are is repeat construction, production are main concentrated in in the low-end, and low added value products Shang, and current various cost pressure constantly rose, but General products price is in competition pressure Xia unable to rose, this also visible market began go light (if products demand, how will does not price), description internal competition pressure large is market go light of a factor. In from external see, various pressure also does not small, this year yilai RMB continued appreciation and export rebate decline, then plus United States of credit crisis increased, factor of effect, textile clothing export began go sustained, especially low added value textile clothing products of export faced has larger of difficulties, and Southeast Asia some national as Viet Nam, and Bangladesh, country export of textile clothing products than of in China has gradually with price advantage. That is China textile by "low to win", relying on low-end, low value-added products conquer the time is over.
  今年上诉各种不利因素的影响仍将继续,还在进一步挤压纺织企业的利润空间,中小型企业面临的压力也更加严竣。所以部分有能力的纺织企业首先应跳出低端产品的竞争,加大研发投入,提高产品附加值、将产品由中低端逐步向中高端转化,其次是开辟新兴市场,合理规避贸易壁垒风险。新兴的投资要向纵深发展。这样才能使我们的市场健康而且稳定的发展。
本段翻译由微软、雅虎提供,闽江学院甘应进 审核,不足的地方,请提建议。?
Appeal of this year various unfavorable factors will continue to be, still further squeeze textile enterprises profit space, small and medium enterprises are facing pressures are more critical. So first of all, some ability of textile enterprises should jump out of the competition in low-end products, increase investment in research and development, improving product added value, from low-end to high-end gradually into the product, followed by opening up new markets, reasonable risk avoiding barriers to trade. Emerging investment to develop in depth. To make the healthy and stable development of our market.
  5月份,盛泽50指数同比4月有所上升。监测数据显示,该月,代表盛泽地区生产规模最大的50家丝绸化纤织造企业的“50指数”在销售额指数上走160.66点的带动下,从而小幅上涨,收于1147.50点,与上月相比上涨了40点。
本段翻译由微软、雅虎提供,闽江学院甘应进 审核,不足的地方,请提建议。?
In May, Sheng index of 50 per cent rise in April. Monitoring data show that in the month, representing Sheng District 50 of the largest production of Silk weaving chemical fiber enterprises "50 index" 160.66 points led by walking on the sales index, which rose modestly, to close at 1147.5, 40 per cent compared with last month.
  5月盛泽50指数出现小幅上涨,这在笔者的预料之中。首先,根据往年的销售经验,4、5月份应该达到一个销售高峰,今年上半年整体纺织行情不是很景气,不少中小企业生产经营出现问题,但是,作为盛泽50家规模型纺织企业,由于他们的组织生产、资金、新产品研发等方面实力雄厚,同时,他们销售渠道广阔,因此,在市场整体增长速度滑坡的情况下,50指数依然强劲反弹;另外,家纺用品类、产业用布等代之而起动销,尤其是5.12四川汶川大地震之后,灾区急需救灾帐篷,其面料销量大幅上升。国内最大的帐篷面产品产销基地盛泽救灾帐篷系列产品,就出现了热销的局面,市场上销量天天攀升,主要有牛津布系列,在地震发生不久,由于灾区帐篷的大量缺口,国家十分重视帐篷布生产情况,盛泽作为全国最大的牛津布生产基地,不少50企业由于生产实力雄厚,先后接到来自国家民政部、总后勤部的直接或间接牛津布生产订单,这也在很大程度上提振了本月50指数。
本段翻译由微软、雅虎提供,闽江学院甘应进 审核,不足的地方,请提建议。?
May a small Sheng 50 index rising, which I expected. First, under in previous years of sales experience, 4 May should reached a a sales peak, this year first half of overall textile market not is boom, many SMEs production operating appears problem, but, as shengze 50 home scale type textile enterprise, because they of organization production, and funds, and new products research and development, aspects strength strong, while, they sales channel broad, therefore, in market overall growth landslide of situation Xia, 50 index still strong rebound; also, home spinning supplies class, and industry with cloth, daizhierqi dynamic pin, especially 5.12 Sichuan Wenchuan large earthquake zhihou, disaster areas needed disaster relief tent, its fabric sales substantially rose. Domestic maximum of tent surface products production and marketing base shengze disaster relief tent series, on appears has hot of situation, market Shang sales every day climbed, main has Oxford cloth series, in earthquake occurs soon, because disaster areas tent of large gap, national is attention tent cloth production situation, shengze as national maximum of Oxford cloth production base, many 50 enterprise because production strength strong, has received from national Ministry, and General Logistics Department of directly or indirect Oxford cloth production orders, this also in is large degree Shang boost has this month 50 index.
  由于灾区帐篷的大量缺口,牛津布的生产销售旺期还会在6、7月份持续,并将对50指数和市场景气指数的涨跌产生一定的影响,帮助企业缓解了生产、销售压力,从而也减轻了上游长丝库存压力。但是市场竞争压力仍在,部分中小型企业因抗风险能力小,发展仍较困难。
本段翻译由微软、雅虎提供,闽江学院甘应进 审核,不足的地方,请提建议。?
Because of the large tent in the disaster areas of gaps, Oxford cloth production and sales of Mong Kok on 6 July last and will rise to 50 index and the market composite index had a certain impact, helping enterprises mitigate production and sales pressure, thereby also reducing the filament in the upper inventory pressure. But the market competitive pressure is still on, in part due to risk-resistant ability of small and medium enterprises small, development is still more difficult.
  6月份,盛泽50指数同比5月有所上升。监测数据显示,本月代表盛泽地区生产规模最大的50家丝绸化纤织造企业的“50指数”小幅上涨,收于1205.28点,与上月相比上涨了57.78点。
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In June, Sheng index of 50 per cent rise in May. Monitoring data show this month representing Sheng District 50 of the largest production of Silk weaving chemical fiber enterprises "50 index" rose modestly, to close at 1205.28 points, 57.78 per cent compared with last month.
  而该月由东方丝绸市场上5000余家商户中的350家商户经营者,依据自己企业的生产经营情况对调查问卷中的问题做出判断选择,统计得出的市场景气指数、化纤产品景气指数和丝绸产品景气指数都纷纷下跌,为何50指数会逆势上涨呢?笔者就此疑惑走访相关企业
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Oriental silk market, and the month by more than 5,000 operators of more than 350 merchant in the merchant, pursuant to their own production and operation of enterprises select judgment of questions in the questionnaire, statistics of the prosperity index, chemical fiber products in the market climate index and climate index of silk products have decreased, why 50 index are contrarian does? I doubt visit-related enterprises
  笔者从走访中了解到,现在整个市场为了规避淡季行情,纷纷降低开机率,而“50指数”相关企业的开机率仍旧维持在高位,有的甚至在100%。这主要是因为:一、这些企业都是本地的龙头企业,他们的研发水平也都处在市场的前列,它们总能把握市场方向,现在它们都把主要的生产方向,放在各种新品和高档产品上,受市场淡季影响很少;二、相关企业的市场信誉度都很好,获得贷款相比其它企业比较容易,资金压力就比较少,能前身心的投入到研发和生产中;三、因为印染企业都要停产两个月,所以后面两个月的很多定单都集中到6、7月月份,50企业本来每月的走量就很大,4个月的量集中到2个月,情况可想而知了。预计7月“50指数”还会有所上涨。
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I learned from a visit, now market as a whole in order to avoid the low season prices have reduced power rates, and "50 index" Enterprise power rates still remain high, even in 100%. This main is because: a, and these enterprise are is local of leading enterprise, they of research and development level also are in market of forefront, they always grasp market direction, now they are to main of production direction, placed in various new and high-grade products Shang, by market off-season effect rarely; second, and related enterprise of market reputation of are is good, get loan compared other enterprise comparison easy, funds pressure on comparison less, can Qian physical and mental of inputs to research and development and production in the; three, and because printing and dyeing enterprise are to discontinued two months, so behind two months of many orders are concentrated to 6 July month, 50 enterprise originally monthly of go volume on is large, 4 months of volume concentrated to 2 months, situation imagined has. Is expected in July "50 index" will also rise.
  后期展望:现今纺织行业进入发展的困难期,但是越是困难的时候越要有人出来做领路人,无疑这任务要落在50企业身上,尤其是在加快技术创新,开发新品,提高企业竞争力上要起到好的带头作用。而我们盛泽整体纺织业也要加快产业结构调整,政府再各反面要加大监管力度,使得市场能更理性的发展。
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Later Outlook: today entered a period of difficulty for the development of the textile industry, but more difficult when the more someone has to do the Pathfinder, undoubtedly this task falls upon 50 enterprises, particularly in accelerating technological innovation, develop new products, improve the competitiveness of enterprises to play a good lead. Sheng Ze and us also to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure of the textile industry as a whole, the reverse side of the Government to increase the intensity of supervision, make more rational development of the market.
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        关键词:纺织新闻|盛泽50指数08年上半年度走势点评
        来源:绸都网 闽江学院甘应进收集整理  审核:闽江学院陈东生教授
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